LEST WE FORGET

We are approaching the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the second world war.

American bombing raids on Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945) killed tens of thousands in the initial blasts and many more later due to burns and radiation poisoning.  

There is no doubt that these bombings had a profound effect on the war, Japanese society and world history. Supporters claimed that they were necessary to bring an end to the war with minimal casualties and critics that they were unnecessary for the war's end and were in fact a war crime.

America's intentions have never been clearly explained but there's no doubt that Russian expansionism was a key factor. The Soviet Union's entry into the war against Japan perhaps was more influential in causing Japan's surrender than the bombs because they faced a new threat rather than a mediator or even a future ally. The USA more likely used the atomic weapons to intimidate the Soviet Union as an early stages of the subsequent Cold War where nuclear weapons were used for detente. Its monopoly on nuclear weapons only lasted four years before the Soviet Union detonated an atomic bomb in September 1949 and from then on a tit for tat 'war' went on with hydrogen bombs and more powerful nuclear variants being brandished by both sides along with 'tactical' nuclear armaments being adopted by seven other nations. This brandishing acted as a warning and a deterrent for many years and as schoolkids we were constantly reminded of the threat and danger of a worldwide nuclear war via films and even in school teaching. That was then ...

... this is now.

Now the USA is falling apart being governed by an orange idiot with little understanding of history, statesmanship, diplomacy and the finer aspects of detente.

On the other hand Russia, which is also falling apart, is being governed by a megalomaniac who is intelligent enough to understand history, statesmanship, diplomacy and the finer aspects of detente but, as a self aggrandising and aging gangster doesn't give a fuck.

Should we be worried?

Hell yes.

Trump having control of a nuclear arsenal (no matter how aged and run-down it is), aided by the most unqualified and stupid people in key positions than the US government has ever seen before is like giving a cut throat razor to a monkey.

The current geopolitical situation with a continually volatile Middle East, a wounded Russian bear bristling over injuries sustained from a non-compliant Ukraine, Chinese posturing, North Korean idiocy, Pakistan and India sparring and Iranian nuclear ambitions - all not being curtailed by a USA that's in ferment worries the shit out of me.

New USA plans for upgrading its nuclear warfare capability in a massive modernisation programme including bombers, missiles, submarines and a 'golden shield' using space technology will take decades to be completed even if they manage to allocate the trillions of dollars necessary to upgrade.

New communication strategies and international agreements are a likely outcome in the short term and I worry that New Zealand's decades long anti-nuclear position is in jeopardy especially if we continue with a marshmallow leader like Chris Luxon.

Oh well, as Jack Reacher say's "hope for the best but plan for the worst". Maybe everyone should just pander to Trump's ego and give him a new hair dryer for his locks and take that razor off him.