2046 - A PREVIEW

I listened to a National Radio interview yesterday where Kennedy Warne was talking of rising sea levels and discussing the likely impacts on New Zealand over the next half a century.

I thought that it would be fun to skip forward 30 years to check out how some of the blogging community will fare. WARNING - this is make believe only. I do not have the power of future sight nor do I have a crazy alter-ego time travelling guy like Richard has to fuel my imagination. Nevertheless, based on an understanding of the chosen candidates psyches my predictions will probably be quite accurate.

CASE No 1 - Richard of RBB.

In 2016 Richard was nearing the end of his usefulness teaching career and was planning to retire in August of 2017. Richard's modest plan was to while away his days playing with him.. his double bass and his violin while enjoying the generous government superannuation that was guaranteed to cater to his every need. Fortunately Richard's every needs were modest as supermarket special wine was OK by him and he was a reasonably accomplished cook being able to knock up cheap and flavoursome Mediterranean-inspired dishes. The only potential budget blow-out was his predilection for canned tomato fillets.
Richard's economically savvy older brother who many years before had purchased property high on a hill suggested that Richard should invest his Kiwi Saver savings in property in the area he lived in - Nuova Lazio. "Nuova Lazio" said older brother " is very affordable right now because there are no sea views and quite frankly is a bit out of the way. In years to come though, with rising sea levels making some of the desirable and expensive coastal settlements unliveable, Nuova Lazio, being several thousand metres above sea level will become sought after".

Richard pretended to listen to this advice, opened another bottle of Banrock Station chardonnay and began dreaming of the Kiwi Saver nest egg he had and how he could best use it. "Yellow double bass strings" he thought "there could be a great demand for yellow double bass strings, those ones with the cute little brass band at the top. Yes, that's what I'll do". And he did. On his retirement Richard used his Kiwi Saver savings to buy up all the yellow bass strings he could find and quietly (apart from the endless violin and double bass practising) retired to his cosy Nuova Lazio home.

Meanwhile.......

CASE No 2 - Geramy Watkins III.

Geramy Watkins aka Robert (the Geramy Watkins pseudonym was used as an attempt to evade traffic fines and IRD requests for payment) liked to live by the sea. With progressive house shifts he gradually came closer and closer. He had heard about the warning of rising sea levels but in his mind this was going to be an advantage, not a problem. He was used to measuring the value of his houses by proximity to the sea and was frustrated at how long it took to pay off some mortgage to enable him to use equity to purchase a more expensive property closer to the water. "Now if the water came to me it would be problem solved" he reasoned to himself.
Geramy/Robert worked all hours his god gave him and then some more to save to pay off mortgages and also to purchase other property in the area he lived which he called 'Petone Heights'. Over the years he was pleased to see that the prices of the properties he desired were getting cheaper as the owners for some reason sold up and moved away. "Fools, fools" he said to himself as he signed yet another purchase agreement.



Over the next 30 years the global warming predictions were proved correct and rising sea levels were much greater than previously forecast. Coastal areas around Wellington and Lower Hutt were soon under water. The affluent area of Eastbourne virtually disappeared  except for those houses high on the hills, Petone was the new Atlantis and all of the Hutt Valley was known as Nuova Venice.

Before and during this period residents with foresight (and good lines of credit) sold up and bought properties in the higher and nicer areas of the wellington region. Soon even a modest house in Koro Koro was beyond the means of most professional working people and Nuova Lazio became desirable. The average price of a house was now in the millions and the Nuova Lazio river that ran down to the ocean was now tidal and the flooded valley afforded a very attractive lake-like view. "Just like Loch Lomond" said Richard who had never been anywhere further than Palmerston North.

Richard was happy. While he had not become a property tycoon he still had his house that was now worth a couple of million dollars according to the real estate agents flyers that cluttered up his letterbox. The only 'fly in his ointment' was also the clutter that several thousand rusting bass strings made of his spare room, rumpus room, bathroom and garage.

His prediction of a run on these failed to happen as Apple/Samsung had produced a hand-held digital bass machine that revolutionised the music industry. Portability was a big advantage. A bigger advantage was the mute button.

Geramy in comparison was a property tycoon. He had manically bought up every property that came to market in the recent years and most of these he was able to buy very very cheap. His dreams of living 'on the waterfront' had come true. The problem was that he couldn't actually live in his houses as they were 10 metres underwater.

 He lived on a barge that was anchored above Jackson Street. Robert had become a real estate agent and offered several properties for sale. He had purchased a second hand diving suit circa 1890 that he kept on hand just in case a client wished to inspect a property. The slow leak in the suit and perished air tubes weren't really a problem as none did.


At first Robert was bothered by the banks that he had taken out mortgages with but with time, and higher water levels these bankers and in fact the banks disappeared.
It was also an advantage that he'd taken out the mortgages in the name of Geramy Watkins III.

All was well in Robert's world although the promised second coming of his god hadn't eventuated.