**WORK IN PROGRESS** *

* I used the  **WORK IN PROGRESS** title as a working title while I wrote this post but when going to put in another title decided that Work In Progress is quite apt.

I shopped at our local Pak n Save yesterday for the first time in about 8 months.

I was stocking up the pantry at the end of the house where we keep 'bulk' items or items in bulk like canned tomatoes, canned chick peas, canned kidney beans, sauces, oat milks, oils, breakfast cereals etc. When these run low I go to Pak n Save and buy, where I can, whole cartons of goods. It's much cheaper than the other Foodfstuffs stores New World or 4 Square and their competitor Woolworths (previously Countdown). I use these stores though for my general, non bulk buying as they do have a better range of items that I prefer to cook with.

Anyway, when going to the checkouts with a very full trolley I saw that half of the checkout aisles have now been replaced by self serve checkouts.

I hate self-serve checkouts and find that, when I have more than a few items, it takes much longer and can be very annoying when things don't scan properly. Why do retail outlets now favour them so much? Obviously, to save on wages. They've calculated that any losses suffered from cheating customers is way more than offset by savings in labour costs. Bastards! This means that a huge number of full-time and part-time workers are out of jobs and added to the unemployment scrap heap ...

... like the many, many others that the Luxon coalition government have put out of work.

I worry about this. New Zealand unfortunately is following the UK (albeit 30 years later) in having an unemployed and sadly, unemployable class as  many jobs dry up due to cutbacks, closures and technological advancements like AI and automatic checkouts. Add to this the decline due to COVID and its after effects like work from home, decline in dining out and on-line ordering - and we have the makings for a perfect storm.

The youth unemployment landscape in the UK remains a growing problem for employers, educators, policy makers and young people. Youth unemployment has been an escalating problem in the UK since 2005, with the most recent rises directly attributable to health issues or other responsibilities such as education or caring
In the last 4 years, youth employment has become more complex than ever, with the impact of the pandemic, disruption to education and rising cost of living
Being unemployed while young is linked to long-term reductions in wages and increased chances of subsequent periods of unemployment, also known as long-term scarring
High levels of youth unemployment and economic inactivity have long-term economic and social costs. Learning and Work Institute calculations estimate the economic and fiscal cost of high youth unemployment will be £31 billion from 2021-2025.
In the Youth Voice Census 2023, young people stated their biggest barriers to employment are lack of work experience and skills, and mental health and anxiety.

         - Youth unemployment UK


The full article is here: YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE UK

The dismal social landscape in the UK - disaffected youth, truancy in schools, education and health cutbacks, youth crime, underage pregnancies, development of a never-working class coupled with renewed class differences largely driven by the economic divide has, to me, made UK an ugly place to visit let alone to live there.

We may be on the same path here in New Zealand.
 

Unemployment is forecast to increase. The Government, however, has a goal to shift a significant number of people off the Jobseeker Support benefit. This demonstrates a conflict of expectations and reality. How do you shift 50,000 people into employment while unemployment is simultaneously expected to increase?

        - berl July 10th 2024

Here's the article in full if you wish to read it.

UNEMPLOYMENT TARGETS A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE TO MEET

The key take-out of the article is here:

New Zealand has an enviable labour force participation rate, well ahead of countries such as the USA. If New Zealand is to achieve its new Jobseeker Support target, we should also be clear that getting there should be delivered by increased employment rather than simply moving people onto other forms of ‘non-employment’ benefit. In Britain, researchers have long documented the increased use of sickness benefits as a means of reducing unemployment registers. Evidence from Australia suggests that more people were on zero-hours jobs than on an unemployment benefit, despite having no guarantee of any work.

Getting there will require a range of interventions that both support people at work and help retrain them for new roles. International research regards active labour market programmes as essential to delivering sustainable reductions in unemployment, particularly for those groups who might otherwise face discrimination in the labour market. Support for retraining should also help tackle New Zealand’s long-held issues with labour productivity.

The May 2024 Budget did not include any new resources for those who may soon find themselves on Jobseeker Support. While the Government has signalled a desire to take a “social investment approach” to welfare, it has also indicated that it will use more sanctions in the future to incentivise those on welfare to look for work. However, the evidence of the effectiveness of benefit sactions is very mixed. This is an area of work in which much more targeted support, with higher levels of resources, will be required.

Because these are long-term issues that will impact everyone disastrously if not properly addressed, it is too important to be left to and driven by partisan governments. A non-partisan whole House approach is necessary if we want to continue with "an enviable labour force participation rate" and not create a permanent 'never-working class'.

How to do this? I don't know and it seems that successive governments including the current poor one haven't got a clue either. Taking jobs away from people and putting them on benefits - no matter how positive the language is like 'Jobseeker Support' is not good for self esteem, physical and mental health and, of course productivity. We are going to have to face up to the fact that technology and AI-driven shortcuts are only going to get worse by getting better and that there will be much larger sections of the current workforce who will no longer have jobs. The challenge is to not allow this to be an entire class of people and to look for ways to dignify the situation - to not allow social stigma to undermine family structures and to maintain work ethic and social values.

This in no way is looking backwards to the work programmes of our yesterdays. Having people build stone fences and filling in potholes isn't the answer (although the country's infrastructure problems could do with some massive labour input). The 'unemployment' benefits will have to be a living wage and better that can be increased by effort and input. Continuing education programmes must be a condition of receiving the living wage and training in civic responsibility should be incorporated. We don't want people who have lost jobs to feel worthless and that they don't contribute. Just watch the TV series  Boys From The Blackstuff to see the perils in that. It's now a stage play in the UK. Hopefully we will see it in New Zealand soon but, more hopefully New Zealand can create a situation where it has no relevance.

****************** 

After writing this post I recalled a post I'd written some years ago on the subject HERE

where I concluded:

"What's been missing is a recognition that all those people who've progressively been 'thrown on the scrap heap' aren't useless. They aren't misfits, drongoes, underachievers and failures - it's just happened. OK? We've already wasted centuries on mishandling this situation (and I've wasted at least a minute trying to keep the readers' reader's attention). Our government and every government by reining in corporates and industries, needs to embrace the problem. Sure, the old adage said work gave dignity. But, if there is no work, what then? We need to 'get over ourselves' and admit (at last) that there is a big change in the way we are currently living. If we want people to behave in a dignified way (assuming that's being crime-less, ethical, moral - not necessarily religious and helping each other) then there has to be one hell of a big change of view and policy. We need to make people feel valuable, that they are an integral part of society and can contribute - not to feel that they are wasters, bludgers and losers."