PLUS CA CHANGE*

* plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (‘the more it changes, the more it stays the same’).

I wish that this was true.



We have a change of government.

In many countries of the world this could be distressing news inviting emigration, revolution, despair or some sort of aggression. 

Fortunately we live in New Zealand which is centrist, politically speaking with, for most of our history having governments that have been largely in the middle between the right and the left movements. There have been and are fringe groups that more more radically left or right but these are in the minority fortunately and it has only been since the introduction of the MMP system in the 1980s that they have had any representation in Parliament and have only been important in helping to form governments when voting has been close. This doesn't mean that their ideas haven't been influential however as ACT, Greens, NZ First and NZ Maori Party MPs have been able to introduce bills to Parliament and have made some useful contributions.

After yesterday's 2023 election it appears that the front-runner, National, will still need the support of ACT and New Zealand First to achieve a working majority. Current results show that National and ACT will have 61 seats in Parliament between them, but this could drop by one or two seats once the special votes were known on November 3. These are likely to benefit Labour.

The soon to be formed new Parliament will have 122 seats - 121 from the general election and a further seat likely following the Port Waikato by-election on November 25 meaning National and Act still won't have a majority and will need the support of NZ First for the minimum extra one seat.

Oh joy! Winston Peters will be playing his games again.

I vote Labour as personally I am more comfortable with its policies of benefit for all rather than for those who are wealthier or earn more but, as in past governments I can live with National leadership even though often the leader - the PM has been either an arsehole or an embarrassment. I've disliked National PMs like Robert Muldoon, John Key, Ruth Richardson and Jenny Shipley and probably only Jim Bolger appealed but mainly because he had egalitarian, almost socialist sentiments and did his best for everyone.

What are we going to get now?

Compromise is the first thing with National, ACT and NZ First having different ideas on what's important and what needs to be changed. How much Luxon will need to suck up to Seymour and Peters is not yet clear until the special votes are counted and until after the Port Waikato by-election but if National wants a comfortable majority he will have to play nice.

What's certain though is that we will be subjected to another budget before the end of the year which will bring the lucky (and privileged) people tax cuts - meaningful ones - the hoi-polloi will get a few dollars a week to buy some more ciggies and beer.   People who earn median incomes are likely to get  a $10 a week tax credit. Those on $60,000 a year will likely get $25.50 a week (0ver $1300 a year) and, if you are above medium to top earning then book that overseas holiday now because you'll be able to afford business class - no worries.

There will of course be cuts to beneficiary-type services to pay for this so don't expect any electricity rebates, assistance for insulation and home heating and rebates for electric vehicles. Be sensible. Someone has to pay for those tax rebates. The Clean Car Scheme, which subsidises the purchase of EVS with fees collected on polluting cars, which National calls a 'ute tax' will be dumped before the end of the year as promised by National. 

Act wants to go further, and flatten the tax structure so that people on higher incomes will be paying less, and people on lower incomes paying more - although lower income earners would see increased tax cancelled out by a tax credit so they would be no worse off. Thanks Mr Seymour.

If you are a minimum wage worker wanting wage increases to acceptable levels well, good luck with that because ACT and National don't want to increase the minimum wage. Why should menial workers get more than $22.70 an hour anyway? To pay them more puts businesses profits at risk and how the hell can you pay business people ridiculously high salaries and give them bonuses and share options if the wages bill increases?

If you liked Labour Government initiatives like Three Waters, the new RMA, and the Māori Health Authority. then I'm sorry to say that these are getting the axe. Luxon and Seymour have stated that they intend to reverse as many of Labour's actions as they can. Sound familiar? Yes, Trump did the same thing to Obama-led USA things like health insurance  and subsidies for the average Joe, The Iran nuclear deal, NATO agreements, Environment Protection issues and various peace deals around the world. Look how that's turned out.

Do you want some more? Are you getting old? Well, National wants to raise the age of eligibility for superannuation from 2044. Act wants the age to rise immediately.  At least NZ First wants it to stay where it is. 

Can you afford being old or to be out of work needing a benefit?

National's tax and income plan provides a $25 boost to the In-Work Tax Credit taking it to $97.50. This is a Working for Families tax credit available to 160,000 low-income families who are not on a benefit. Labour also promised the tax credit boost. Working for Families tax credits, unlike benefits, are not automatically adjusted for inflation and this change simply adjusts for the last time since the credit was lifted.
National also promises to revert benefits to being indexed to CPI inflation rather than wages. Based on current economic forecasts, it would mean beneficiaries losing out on $416 over the course of the year, with the basic jobseeker rate going to $350 a week rather than $358 a week.

The future of the Zero Carbon Act, and the Climate Change Commission is also in doubt. This is obviously a cow-tow (pun intended) to farmers who are staunch and important National supporters and voters. The Auckland Regional Fuel tax is going to be repealed. National said it would get rid of this 11.5c a litre  tax on petrol sold in Auckland introduced by Labour which goes to Auckland Council for the city's transport projects, rather than to the Crown so that Auckland can pay its own way. National say the tax needs to be gone in the first 100 days of a new government which will mean that in the future either Auckland residents rates go up again or the rest of New Zealand pays for critical and essential transport improvements.

National,  ACT and NZ First have all said they would get rid of the Auckland Light Rail project, with National promising to axe it within 100 days of taking office. For NZ First, it will be the second time they killed the scheme, having vetoed it at the end of their coalition with Labour in 2020.

Were you, like me horrified by the Christchurch mosque massacres and relieved that the government immediately took steps to put more controls and prohibitions on gun ownership? Well, National and ACT want to repeal the Labour Government actions on firearm registers and controls. Yes, you read that correctly. What is wrong with them? I don't have a lot of detail but this is one that I'm definitely going to follow.

There are many other very important issues like crime, gangs, illegal drugs, tenancy, overseas property ownership where National/ACT differ from Labour policies. These seem to be way more than in previous decades which are making me think that maybe I won't be happy under a 'centrist' National led government.

Time will tell but 'Hold On To Your Hats'.