ARMAGEDDON ..... OUTTA HERE*

* A little joke.

Actually we can't 'get outta here' as we're locked down for a month which will no doubt be a hundred days before review.
Things are bad and will get worse.

Initially the 'worse' could be 12 to 20 thousand deaths in New Zealand and a couple of million infections before we get to a slowdown on Covid-19.
This would, of course be dependent on a total closure of our borders and a very rigid control system of internal travel, socialising, entertainment and gatherings. This could go on for a couple of years.

We may get back to exporting and essential imports but earnings like tourism are stuffed for at least 5 years. This will be a blow to the economy and we'll have to 'cut our cloth' accordingly. Life will be different.

All bad good?

Well, that's the good part.

The bad part, if New Zealand does its job properly and we weather the storm, is that other countries are unlikely to do the same and will fuck up. Australia, our nearest neighbour is already a bit of a fuck-up but, like us they have a halfway decent health and welfare system and they too will weather the storm. It's the neighbours to the north that will be the problem. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Phillipines and Far East countries are likely to go back to the stone age. While this is a bit of an exaggeration they will collapse as they don't have proper systems of welfare, employment assistance, health care and other governmental supports to keep going properly. Their phenomenal growth since WW2 has been in cheap production, natural resource plundering and cheap exports. While this 'machine' has been going there has been enough money coming in to sustain their populations albeit poorly for the lowest earners. I cannot see their recovery in the short term or even the long term after this pandemic.

Not necessarily the Japanese

So, what does this mean for us? Isolation yes which we can get through but remember that Indonesia, Malaysia, the Phillipines and those Far East nations have huge stockpiles of weaponry. If and when their governments collapse these stockpiles will fall into the hands of bandits, brigands and revolutionaries. This would be OK (from our perspective) if they didn't get organised but if they do - watch out. Australia will be an attractive target and good old New Zealand not far behind.

In WW2 the Japanese had their sights set on (and plans drawn up for) invading Australia and New Zealand. This wasn't in USA's interests so that's why Uncle Sam set up buffer zones and engaged the Japanese with the winning of  Battle of the Coral Sea being a great relief for Australia and New Zealand. This time round the yanks wouldn't care even if they could get their act together as, in 5 years time they will be truly stuffed as a world force.


Watch this space!